Showing posts with label Global warming. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Global warming. Show all posts

Friday, July 31, 2015

Five reasons to thank Plankton.

spongebob.wikia.com

Five reasons to thank Plankton?


Okay, so not the character from Spongebob Squarepants.  As the article in the current issue of Nature magazine says,  "For too long Plankton have slaved away in obscurity, making the world a better place for generations of ungrateful humans. Until now. Find out how much you owe these little guys with ~  




Thursday, July 30, 2015

How accurate are climate model projections?

The Stockholm Resilience Center published a list of nine planetary boundaries in 2010 that is useful in understanding the current state of the global environment.  The nine include species extinction, global warming, fresh water use, land use and so on. (See THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT for a complete list with links to the latest research on each boundary.)

The Climate Change Boundary
Recent evidence suggests that the Earth, now passing 390 ppmv CO2 in the atmosphere, has already transgressed the planetary boundary and is approaching several Earth system thresholds. We have reached a point at which the loss of summer polar sea-ice is almost certainly irreversible. The nine planetary boundaries were developed as a project of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, founded in 2007, as a joint project of Stockholm University and the Beijer International Institute of Ecological Economics at The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. 


New study narrows the gap between climate models and reality

Climate models are used to estimate future global warming, and their accuracy can be checked against the actual global warming observed so far. Most comparisons suggest that the world is warming a little more slowly than the model projections indicate. Scientists have wondered whether this difference is meaningful, or just a chance fluctuation.

Dire Predictions,
Second Edition:
Understanding Climate Change

 by Michael E. Mann

Order new & used from
Powell's Books
Dr Kevin Cowtan, of the Department of Chemistry at York, led an international study into this question and its findings are published in Geophysical Research Letters. The research team found that the way global temperatures were calculated in the models failed to reflect real-world measurements. The climate models use air temperature for the whole globe, whereas the real-world data used by scientists are a combination of air and sea surface temperature readings. Dr Cowtan said: "When comparing models with observations, you need to compare apples with apples.

"The team determined the effect of this mismatch in 36 different climate models. They calculated the temperature of each model earth in the same way as in the real world. A third of the difference between the models and reality disappeared, along with all of the difference before the last decade. Any remaining differences may be explained by the recent temporary fluctuation in the rate of global warming.

Dr Cowtan added: "Recent studies suggest that the so-called 'hiatus' in warming is in part due to challenges in assembling the data. I think that the divergence between models and observations may turn out to be equally fragile."

Dr Cowtan's primary field of research is X-ray crystallography and he is based in the York Structural Biology Laboratory in the University's Department of Chemistry. His interest in climate science has developed from an interest in science communication. This is his second major climate science paper. For this project, he led a diverse team of international researchers, including some of the world's top climate scientists.

Related stories:

Story Source:  Materials provided by University of York.  Kevin Cowtan, Zeke Hausfather, Ed Hawkins, Peter Jacobs, Michael E. Mann, Sonya K. Miller, Byron A. Steinman, Martin B. Stolpe, Robert G. Way. Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 2015

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Sea-level in Chesapeake Bay rising faster than ocean

While most writers understand that ocean levels are rising and that cities like New Orleans, New York and others are at risk, this report stresses that water levels in the Chesapeake Bay are rising faster than the world-wide average.


Past and present sea levels in 
the Chesapeake Bay Region, USA
What this means for the future

Scientists write that sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr) is faster in the Chesapeake Bay region than any other location on the Atlantic coast of North America, and twice the global average (1.7 mm/yr). They have found that dated interglacial deposits suggest that relative sea levels in the Chesapeake Bay region deviate from global trends over a range of timescales.

The Attacking Ocean:
The Past, Present,
and Future of
Rising Sea Levels


by Brian Fagan

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In a new article for GSA Today, authors Benjamin DeJong and colleagues write that sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr) is faster in the Chesapeake Bay region than any other location on the Atlantic coast of North America, and twice the global average (1.7 mm/yr). They have found that dated interglacial deposits suggest that relative sea levels in the Chesapeake Bay region deviate from global trends over a range of timescales.

According to DeJong and colleagues, "Glacio-isostatic adjustment of the land surface from loading and unloading of continental ice is likely responsible for these deviations, but our understanding of the scale and timeframe over which isostatic response operates in this region remains incomplete because dated sea-level proxies are mostly limited to the Holocene and to deposits 80 ka or older."

To better understand glacio-isostatic control over past and present relative sea level, DeJong and colleagues applied a suite of dating methods to the stratigraphy of the Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge, one of the most rapidly subsiding and lowest-elevation surfaces bordering Chesapeake Bay. Their data indicate that the region was submerged at least for portions of marine isotope stage (MIS) 3 (about 30 to 60 thousand years ago), although, they note, multiple proxies suggest that global sea level was 40 to 80 meters lower than today.

Today, MIS 3 deposits are above sea level because they were raised by the Last Glacial Maximum forebulge, but decay of that same forebulge is causing ongoing subsidence. "These results," they write, "suggest that glacio-isostasy controlled relative sea level in the mid-Atlantic region for tens of thousands of years following retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet and continues to influence relative sea level in the region."

The study finds that isostatically driven subsidence of the Chesapeake Bay region will continue for millennia, exacerbating the effects of global sea-level rise and impacting the region's large population centers and valuable coastal natural resources.

Related stories:
Story Source:  Materials provided by Geological Society of America. Benjamin D. DeJong, Paul R. Bierman, Wayne L. Newell, Tammy M. Rittenour, Shannon A. Mahan, Greg Balco, Dylan H. Rood. Pleistocene relative sea levels in the Chesapeake Bay region and their implications for the next century.  GSA Today, 2015